Their most fearsome adversary is already there the Brazilian Vale

Imagine: three groups of tremendous size, assets around the world, highlights of hundreds of thousands of employees and owners of thousands of deposits of natural resources share the bulk of the global markets for minerals.

The largest of the merger between BHP Billiton, the current world number one, and Anglo-Australian compatriot Rio Tinto, the third by valorization, path to him only 200 billion at the present price. It would ensure over a third of overall exports ore of iron, raw steel. It would display a copper 15 market share of approximately 6 in exports of thermal coal, 15 in coal coke for the blast of the steel industry of 10 of market share in nickel, 15 in aluminum and almost 20 in alumina, the raw material of grey metal. Not to mention significant presences in many other products of natural diamond.

Of course, the union of these two protagonists to failed at the end of 2008, by the financial crisis. But they have not said their last word. Rio Tinto, recalcitrant until there is little to any group with its powerful competitor, has resorted recently to help interested to emancipate from the Chinese embrace. Conclusion (probably temporary): the two accomplices come already to merge their operations in iron ore. A case in more than 100 billion... And, as of November, BHP Billiton will be free to return to the load.

Their most fearsome adversary is already there: the Brazilian Vale. These days, the markets like it more than 90 billion dollars, nearly twice more than Rio Tinto. The carioca is the undisputed leader, until recently, the iron ore, which controls about one third of world exports, and is the second largest producer of nickel with a 13 market share of approximately.

As the major last a not so unlikely scenario, it might be the fruit of the union between Xstrata and Anglo American, valued today on the stock exchange at $ 65 billion. In this case also, one of the candidates to the marriage, Anglo American, is recalcitrant. But it is not excluded that the forces of the market, through some of its powerful shareholders, convinces Anglo American leadership to reconsider its judgment. Especially if the next performance of the company are disappointing. All that born would be the first both for the production of zinc, with a market share of 12, that of Platinum (35) and diamond (40). It would be the first exporter of thermal coal with 13 of the total and the second coal coke (11). The unified duo would also have 10 of the global copper market and 8 nickel. Last point of strength, the ferrochrome.

Anglo American was able to resist the Xstrata, épaulé advances in its approach by its reference shareholder, number one worldwide physical trading of raw Glencore, Vale could focus. With conclusion of return to the figure of three titans of the mining industry.

Whatever the winning combination that will come out, the trio of head control then more than 70 of world exports of iron and the fourth and fifth, respectively, those of coking coal and metallurgical coal. They would provide nearly a third of the total supply of nickel, more than a quarter of that of copper, more than a third of the Platinum, about one-fifth of that of aluminum, approximately 65 of the diamonds and more than 10 of the zinc. Customers, especially the steel producers, supply them in nickel, iron ore and coking coal, will appreciate.

Yet, the likelihood of cartelization is not feasible, given the productive specificities of this sector. The very high costs of long term storage and significant costs associated with the cases of mines make difficult instant, collaborative supply management to support prices. The severe correction of the courts of all mineral resources, since the summits from early July 2008, testifies to the extreme difficulty companies of this industry to adapt quickly to market conditions suddenly deteriorated. For more, even in the case of the more glaring concentration, iron ore, their trade policies long-term diverge more and more.

Against the temptation of cartels, the market economy has already found effective antidotes: the coalition of the customers, as in the case of the Chinese steelmakers to suppliers of iron ore; the creation of markets regulated, transparent and accessible of the derivatives of the raw materials, to protect themselves against volatility courses and for access to the products of smaller companies; and the birth of new actors, in the image of Fortescue, always in iron ore.