The France is in recession like the others j

Preamble of the budgetary discussion resumed at the National Assembly, the Minister of this economy, this afternoon, the scenario that accompanies the new forecast growth for 2009, revised downward, beginning of November, in the range from 0.2 to 0.5 instead of 1 announced in September. This scenario takes into account the progress, better than expected, 0.1 ("0.14 ", was held to clarify Christine Lagarde) of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, published Friday by Insee and allowing the France, unlike many of its European (read below), partners to avoid the technical recession (characterized by two consecutive quarterly GDP declines). Cumulative de le poursuite de the decline of cumulative confirmation of reflux of inflation, the composition of the growth in the third quarter helps Bercy, which will confirm a 57.6 billion budget deficit in 2009, to update its grid of reading on the situation of the French economy. The Department observed that household consumption and exports of the companies are rather required better than expected. Insee also point resistance of the business investment, correlated survey of industrialists released Friday.

So far, the climate of gloom and economic difficulties, widely felt by the French, require government still suspected of being too optimistic to low profile. "In the European context, third-quarter French growth is enviable." "But it must be acknowledged that, in absolute terms, 0.1 quarterly growth, it is modest," stated thus, Friday, the entourage of Christine Lagarde. At Montauban, Friday, François Fillon also remained cautious: "in 2008, the France know not recession, it will see for 2009. Even if the scope is limited, economy has destroyed the jobs employees in the third quarter again 10,800 in the market sector, after 27.500, according to data published Friday by Insee.

The deceleration already very clear

Above all, for the fourth quarter and 2009 forecasts remain very dark. "The worsening of the crisis has occurred in any end of quarter, and is therefore more likely to be in the fourth quarter figures, says Eric Dubois, head of the Department of the environment to the Insee." Our diagnosis of which hold in France and growth in euro area is not at all questioned. "Annual landslide, the deceleration is already very clear: the pace of growth increased from 2 at end of March to 1.2 end of June and 0.6 end September. "The France is in recession, like the others, j. Pierre-Olivier Beffy, Economist at Exane. During rollover, there a lot of volatility, but the drying out of the credit from September and the first data on industrial production will strongly weigh in the fourth quarter.

"The crisis may have a psychological effect on consumption in October and the weakness of several sectors, such as construction or services to the companies, will soon see in the figures," art as Karine Berger, of Euler Hermes SFAC. Economists have heavily revise downward their growth forecasts for 2009: they now expect on a withdrawal of the French economy of 0.1, according to the latest Consensus Forecast, which identifies forecasts of economic forecasters. A month ago, they yet anticipated 0.5 per cent growth.