The economy will enter a zone of turbulence

Have these "stress tests" convinced you

I am pleasantly surprised by the degree of detail, Bank by Bank. The results of these tests, analysts have at their disposal of accurate data on sovereign risk exposure. They can now do their own calculations and better distinguish between the institutions. It is very important because it gives transparency precisely lacking in the market. If it had been this transparency in the structured products the crisis of the derivatives of credit (of "sub-prime" in particular), the latter would have been shorter.

Are you surprised by the methodology and results

I am not really surprised by the banks who have "missed" the exercise: expected at least a German Bank and several Spanish savings banks. There is not, nor, scoop on the aggregate exposure of the institutions. The methodology could be more restrictive, but it's interesting because there are enough strong assumptions on short term interest rates. The important thing is that it is out of opaque situation due to competition between regulators, where nobody wanted to show his game before his neighbour. The Spanish initiative, it ceased to markets for small children, irrational and incapable of thinking.

The risk of failure of a State has not taken into account.

It is a bias that I can understand. Make explicit assumptions of bankruptcy of such or such State was too minefield. If regulators had done so, they have generated reactions from the countries mentioned. Analysts to do their calculations with their own probabilities. It is now possible.

These tests will be enough to reassure the markets

I think that the exercise will have a positive impact, because of its degree of detail. The main concern of the markets was the Spain, which is doing quite well. Tests should have an effect on the banking sector - no doubt slightly beneficial - by creating more differentiation between banks, both on the evolution of their stock prices and their CDS (credit default swap"). The exercise should also reduce some sovereign credit spreads differences in rates between the countries, Editor's note. On the front of the scholarships, must await the details of the tests are well digested by investors to determine a trend, but the most probable is that it was already a new old. Finally, they could be positive for the interbank market and allow the Eonia, the rate on the day the day of the euro area, to stabilize. If this is not the case, the European Central Bank (ECB) will have more free rein to act on the amount of cash to banks.

It will therefore only have a marginal effect on the stock...

The "stress tests" remove uncertainty but are the most important catalyst. Two months ago, the sovereign debt crisis was at the centre of the concerns, whereas now, it is the conditions. Investors are all focused on American history. But the United States, such as China and the rest of the world, entered a phase of slowing down. The bad news will then arrive in Europe after the very good figures in the second quarter. The peak of the cycle of stocks is also spent on the Continent and budgetary policies will tighten well. The economy will enter a zone of turbulence. I still expect revisions increase on European growth for 2010 estimates, but also to revisions down for 2011 global forecasts.

How do you evolve scholarships and the euro in the coming months

Markets will find it difficult to decide between slowdown and real relapse. The probability of recession is low, less than 10 of my point of view, given the strong demand structural emerging in the global economy, but uncertainty about the economic diagnosis could persist until the end of the year, and thereby prevent awards up. Indices may move in a narrow range, making the yo-yo with short-term news. As in the euro, the positive impact of the "stress tests" is behind us. The course of the single currency depend more on us indicators. As, in the short term, the conditions in the euro area will appear more robust than in the United States, the euro could even be assessed by the end of the summer. It must be recognized that the analysis of Ben Bernanke to the Congress last week has not reassured on the State of the US economy.

What will be the key indicators to monitor

World Trade and all statistics for future trends such as orders for durable goods or investment companies. Investment in capital equipment resumed, as evidenced by the good results of Microsoft or Intel, but must await a more generalized resumption of business spending to reassure investors.