A matter of urgencyAddress at a rate of 10

The output of recession is perhaps at hands, but return to employment is far from certain. To address this crucial equation, Barack Obama convened this morning at the White House, the state flower of economists and American employers. Patterns of Google, ATT, Fedex and Disney is thus cross the prize Nobel Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz and economist Jeffrey Sachs. Modestly to the menu of this employment summit, renamed "Jobs forum" to not create excessive expectations: the transition to the screen of a new package of measures (tax credits, aid export...), designed to boost employment and to curb the rise in unemployment (10.2 in October) to its highest level since a quarter of a century.

A matter of urgency

"Address at a rate of 10.2 unemployment is a matter of urgency." "But this is not something that will be resolved in a week, a month or a year", however warned the Director of the National Economic Council, Lawrence Summers, on the eve of the publication, tomorrow, of the new monthly figure of unemployment for November. In fact, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist with Economy of Moody's site, the American unemployment rate could reach a peak of 11 in the third quarter of 2010 (from 7.6 in January). A prognosis shared by Economist Nouriel Roubini (New York University) does not preclude the maintenance of a rate in double digits for two years. "Let us not forget that after the end of the last recession in November 2001, job losses have continued for more than a year and a half until June 2003.".Like the Nobel Prize in economics Paul Krugman, he argues for a new package of stimulus measures focusing on transfers to the Federated States and infrastructure projects.

While stressing the positive impact of the first stimulus package of $ 787 billion, the entourage of Barack Obama has been so far to avoid the idea of a "a plan" likely to aggravate the deficit (1.400 billion). The White House looking instead for measures of credit in favour of companies and AIDS to the Federated States whose overall invoice should not exceed 100 billion to 150 billion dollars. According to the latest report released Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), February stimulus would nonetheless contributed to "create or save" between 600,000 and 1.6 million jobs, a reduction of 0.3 to 0.9 of the unemployment rate percentage point. It is still far from the promise of the administration Obama "create or save" 3.5 million jobs by September 2010.

Even if the monthly job loss rate is significantly reduced in the last quarter (169.000 in November against 645.000 a year ago), with more than 7.3 million jobs destroyed since December 2007 the number of the unemployed in the United States in was not less passed the helm of the 15 million people, the "real" unemployment rate even estimated at 17.5 (part-time workers).

Revival of exports

Because a new extension of emergency unemployment compensation measures, already extended up to 73 weeks by the Congress, some 1.3 million of the unemployed (over 9 million buy-offs) threaten to be in "end of rights" at the end of the year. To ward off the spectre of a "jobless", which is not yet proven today, Lawrence Summers said that the White House put on the relaunch of exports, particularly to China, to boost hiring, as well as on aid for research and development. Barack Obama Advisor, the reduction in unemployment is also an "essential element" of the fight against the deficit.