60 for its part Citigroup anticipates 4

U.S. regulations fail to recoup the losses gained since November. The performance of the titles in 10 years camped on a level of 3.34 - end of the day yesterday - and specialists, rates should rise by the end of the year. RBS performance in 10 years pass to 3.60, for its part, Citigroup anticipates 4. "The fundamentals are all unfavourable: the economic indicators are generally better that expected, the financial conditions have improved, the deflation is avoided and the offering of securities is consistent", summarizes Mark Schofield, strategist of the American Bank.

BNP Paribas, the United States will raise 2 billion dollars in medium and long term debt this year. It is 6 less than in 2010, but due to repayments to honour only less important than the past year.

Of good surprises

The budget deficit was digging themselves. "The extension of the scheme of tax cuts has increased the forecast deficit for 2011," said BNP Paribas, which evaluates the increase to 25. In Citigroup, it is estimated also that "budgetary risk" must result in the addition of 50 basis points at the rate 10-year us.

On the macroeconomic statistics, the time is good surprises since the end of last year, resulting in a revision to the increase in growth and inflation estimates. The consensus established at the end of December provides for an increase in GDP of 2.7, but some stakeholders expect to 4. The pattern of the Fed, Ben Bernanke himself recently said that there were more and more signals "indicating the beginning of a sustainable recovery of consumption and investment." At the beginning of week, the Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, even raised the possibility of a monetary tightening if the growth in the United States continued to accelerate.

An obstacle: unemployment

Remains a major obstacle: unemployment, the admission even Ben Bernanke should not narrowed quickly and may limit the action of the Fed. To date, most stakeholders anticipate therefore not increase interest rates this year. "Before even the last employment report, we thought that speculation on an abandonment of the purchases of bonds by the Fed program earlier than expected or on an increase in the rates by end of year was exaggerated," said team RBS." It will take a number of tangible signs of improvement in the labour market and more than one or two quarters of positive indicators for the Fed... concluded that the growth will be sustainable above its long-term average. "As a number of strategists, those of RBS remain convinced that the US Federal Reserve will go after his program of purchases of securities of $ 600 billion. At the most.

This factor is crucial for the bond market, because it limits its potential to decline this year. BNP Paribas argued that the Fed will absorb all of the net emissions (i.e., emissions that are used to cover the deficit and not to the refunds) of the U.S. Government. At Citigroup, estimated 85 basis points the "quantitative easing" (positive) impact on the rate to 10-year us. But this does not call into question the scenario of a rebound in market rates this year. Some operators believe that if growth exceeds 4, a bond crash is possible.