75 at the next meeting on 8 June in Madrid

The clouds are gathering over the bond markets. The decline of the dollar, which reached its lowest level against the euro since one year and seven months against the yen (read below), accentuates the ambient nervousness. Only Awards (see below, box) appear to be still relatively spared. For how long

This week, the publication of figures for us unemployment in the month of April will be particularly followed. The reason This first report on the use of the second quarter will give indications on the pace of activity and its possible deceleration after a strong start to year marked by an increase of 4.8 of GDP in the first quarter, its fastest pace since two and a half years.

And it is this force of activity despite the impressive series of successive rate hikes that frightens a little market. A much higher than 130,000 monthly job creation figure the level ensuring stability of the rate of unemployment , as anticipated by the market, combined with a thrust of hourly wages, would cause new tensions on long rates.

These tensions are already present, as attested their reaction yesterday with the publication across the Atlantic, for the month of March, one of the most followed by inflationary indicators by the US Federal Reserve, namely the "core" of the household expenditure deflator. Whereas an increase of 0.2, it was finally 0.3 to 0.1 gain the previous month.

Another worrying news for bonds, the composite index of activity in the industrial sector (ISM) purchasing managers rose to 57.3 in April, after 55.2 the previous month. This is clearly better than the expectations of the consensus, which was on a level of 55. Balance sheet, following the announcement: the U.S. rate in 2 years progressed by 6 basis points to 4.92, a leap of 7 basis points for the performance of the T-bonds to 5.12. Force build up, all these "small" bad news are beginning to seriously undermine confidence in the bond market.

"Bad pass" in Europe

A little better off European bond markets, are similarly set to know their fourth straight month of correction, their longest "bad password" since 1999. 10-Year rates have reached their most top since three and a half years. Stable yesterday in tenuous volumes, bond of the old Continent had ceded ground Friday after the announcement of an increase of 8.6 of the monetary mass M3 of the euro zone in March, after an increase of 7.9 in February, for clearly stronger than expected growth. In the first quarter, the aggregate grew by 8.1, versus 7.7 for December-February. Loans to the private sector jumped by 10.8 in March and over one year. The Central Bank (ECB) European should not for especially tough at its meeting scheduled for Thursday but most certainly in June, according to a panel of economists polled by AFX News, a subsidiary of AFP. Indeed, all of the 30 economists of the panel believes that the ECB will maintain its rate to 2.50 next Thursday, and 29 of them predict that this rate will increase to 2.75 at the next meeting on 8 June in Madrid.

Until now, European scholarships rather well resisted an enabling environment of risk (oil, dollar...). Apparently, the pronounced decline in the dollar began to weigh on the holding of European actions. Thus, Friday, the CAC 40 of the French stock market index finished in decrease of 0.48, to 5.188,40 points. London has for its part lost 0.61, Frankfurt 0.95 and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.61. "Between the continuous progress of the CAC 40 since November, the new record oil prices and tensions on long rates, all conditions are met for a stock market correction between 5 and 7," says François Chevallier, strategist at VP finance. According to him, the weakness of the European stock market correction is "indirect evidence that they did not commit excess." Scholarships can see in the escalation of the barrel a barometer and an indicator of global growth, as the increase in metals, and thus the oil progresses, more future profits would be high sort. An optimistic review of the current oil shock, a sign of confidence.