And perhaps a historical shift for Europe

Aquel moment begins a crisis History may include the date of December 7, the day where the Standard & Poor's rating agency announcement placed the note in the long term of the Greece "under surveillance with negative implication". Already greater than its gross domestic product, Greek debt, estimated at EUR 272 billion, could, according to Fitch, reach 130 of GDP in the next few years. The time bomb lit by S & P breaks out really as the first days of January.

January 6: Jürgen Stark light the wick

It was to be one interview like any other. An Exchange civilized on the economic situation in General, and the fragility of some countries in particular. But that day, Jürgen Stark is verve. In the columns of the Italian daily "Il Sole 24 Ore", this eminent member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a keypad in the mare: "markets are illusions if they think that, at some point, the other Member States will hand to the wallet to save the Greece", he warned. And so things are clear, the very Orthodox collaborator of Jean-Claude Trichet drives the nail: "the treaties provide the non-sauvetage clause, and the rules must be respected." Message received five out of five markets: the European Union will not fly to the rescue of Athens. Afterwards, the economist Daniel Cohen explain on the antenna of France Inter, that by this kind of statements, the leaders of the euro area ablaze themselves "powders". At this point, according to him, it would have been sufficient to assert with force that the failure of a member country was not possible to stem the crisis. This is just the opposite has happened. And this "error", the entire Monetary Union pay now very expensive...

11 January: the IMF knocks on the door

Using refused by EU officials, the international monetary Fund (IMF) is quite prepared him to bring it to the Greece... Soon, a spokesman for the institution in fact that a team of experts should go to Athens "at the request of the Greek authorities" to examine "the possibility of technical assistance. After all, have countries such as the Hungary or the Romania not benefited from the valuable support of the IMF to keep afloat in the fall of 2008 This is true. But, until now, never a euro-zone countries had sought the assistance of the Fund. And this, the European authorities are not ready to accept it. Issue of sovereignty. Issue of credibility. "We must address ourselves without the help of the IMF." This message, the President of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, said it its interlocutors of the G7, last weekend. That put the finger in this gear, would be to admit its helplessness. Discredit for a long time, no doubt, the single currency. The problem is that, in this case, the ECB has room to maneuver well reduced... Its statutes in effect prevent him to buy securities issued by a Member State. To save the "weak link" in Greek, the twenty-seven, without the IMF, have therefore choice but to roll up the sleeves. The idea of a plan of intergovernmental support begins to make his way...

January 14: the "slow death" of the Greece

Promises. But no one to believe. The program "stability and growth" presented by the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was designed to reassure both its European partners and markets. It is missed. Drastic economies announced, nor the commitment to reduce the public deficit below 3 of GDP by 2012 compared to 12.7 in 2009, are sufficient to stop the downward spiral. The same day, the Greek 10-year rate flies above 6 for the first time since a year, and the CDS of the Greece ("credit default swap", akin to the contract of insurance against the risk of failure of the country) puts at its highest historical levels. In practical terms, the market believes that the Greek State has more than one chance in five to failure to here five years. Excessive pessimism Perhaps. But in these crazy weeks, pessimism is a contagious disease. Febrile, operators are challenged now also of the Spain and the Portugal, who see their bond rates to ignite. In this context, the rating agency Moody's predicts simply the "slow death" of the Greece and the Portugal if they do not put in the courageous measures to redress their public finances.

January 28: the media panic markets

And the time of the rumours. January 27, "The Financial Times" bar the one with a shock figure: EUR 25 billion. It is the bond portfolio of the Greek State that a delegation from the Goldman Sachs Bank, commissioned by Athens, would have come to propose to Beijing. Denials fly, but nothing. The euro is again attacked. As, in its Edition dated January 29, "The world" between in turn in the dance by revealing that the States of the zone euro, France and Germany in mind prepare a plan of support to the Greece. New denials, however unable to stop the fever of the markets. Because all these information, more or less supported, do not mean that the situation of the Greece is more serious than one might think The sanction does not wait. On 28 January, the euro is below 1.40 dollar, reaching its lowest for six months. "Speculators" buy the doomsday scenario that the media themselves influenced by the markets, tell them. The loop is buckled. The Greek crisis escape more and more reality to enter the domain of emotion.

February 3: Joaquin Almunia gave the signal of contagion

On Wednesday, Joaquin Almunia, European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, did not go by four paths: "some members of the eurozone with different starting positions of the different features, share common problems", he says, citing his own country of origin, the Spain, which he was Minister of labour, and the Portugal. Here are several days that investors play with the idea that the Greek scenario is quite feasible for the Iberian Peninsula. In a recent note, the American Economist Nouriel Roubini, very listened to have predicted the "sub-prime" crisis, wrote: "If the Greece is a problem for the euro area, the Spain could be a disaster because it is the fourth largest economy." In this context particularly electrical, each sentence weighs very heavy... The words of Almunia are collapsing the fragile dike that protected even eurozone contagion. The next day, the Madrid stock market collapses, leaving 5.94. Lisbon, on the other hand, Rectifier 4.98. The previous week, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spanish Prime Minister, announced a plan of savings of 50 billion euros by 2013, without convincing addition-measurement analysts. Joaquin Almunia made a very bad service to his comrade of the PSOE. February 4, the euro is 1.38 dollar bar, its worst score since seven months.

February 4 Angela enters the scene

Yes, she said: "economic government of Europe". These words, spoken by Angela Merkel on 4 February, at the Council of Ministers Franco-German in the Elysee Palace, expected them more. The following years the Germany, draped in his budgetary orthodoxy, refuses to hear of euro-zone economic policy coordination, lest loose outweighs the rigour. It is this same Germany got to register a courteously to countries in economic hazard clause in the Maastricht Treaty. However this small sentence, just relieved that day, announces a turning point in this crisis of the euro. And perhaps a historical shift for Europe. It is that without the consent of the Germany, no plan of support for the Greece can be decided. But the clock is ticking. On Monday, February 8, the "Financial Times" gives a very clear idea of the threat to the euro. According to the daily life of the City, in a week, "hedge funds" and traders have accumulated some 40,000 contracts against the euro, speculating downward on the currency, for a total amount of $ 8 billion of the never-seen since the creation of the single currency. Each understood: since the implicit go-ahead from Angela, is the Germany which leads the ball of the rescue of the euro.

8 February: Jean-Claude Trichet took the aircraft

Everything is faster. February 8 in the evening, Jean-Claude Trichet interrupts a seminar of central bankers of the eurozone and Asia-Pacific, in Australia, to return to Europe. Markets saw the sign of a growing concern of the European leaders about the Greek situation. The euro stumbling again. For two days, the dealings multiply between European leaders to build a plan for support to the Greece. The previous evening, the Elysee Palace "débriefe" the situation in a few journalists. Not question let Angela Merkel only one field. The France and the Germany, which the banks support only 37 of Greek debt, want to take advantage of the European Summit on 11 February to launch a "strong message" of support for the Greece. The precise terms of the aid will be announced later. Paris and Berlin to rely on the fact that this simple statement cool markets, reducing thereby the invoice of the later, now inevitable rescue plan. A bet.